SWANSEA CITY v FULHAM - Home Win?

09-02-2009

SWANSEA CITY v FULHAM - Home Win?


I have watched Fulham twice (courtesy of Sky) since the draw was made and think we have a very good chance in this one. In fact, I would say that I will go into this one with more optimism than I did against Pompey. That day we had to be on our game all over the pitch for 90 minutes but Fulham don't appear to offer the same level of threat and their set up seems to play into our hands. If true there are real grounds for optimism.

Forecast - I genuinely believe we will progress to the 6th round of the FA Cup for the first time in 45 years.

I may come to regret those words - but if I do, it will only be fleeting, as the cup is surely just the cream on top of the jam piled high on our scone this season. I know some may argue that the cup is actually the jam on top of the cream piled high on our scone this season, but to do so would not just be argumentative, but would also be wrong. Jam first, cream on top – there is no other way!

Enough talk of cakes already, we all know that our bread and butter is the Championship and that the potential rewards of the play-offs or even promotion are much more than the cup could deliver. But, for the time being, the cup can provide a much needed and unbudgeted windfall, and so long as we keep winning, it further boosts our standing and confidence in the football hierarchy.

So, I guess it’s fair to say that for us supporters, the Directors and Management, and the players this will be a big occasion. Fulham too will not treat it lightly as they must have at least one eye on going further as this is their only chance of winning a trophy this season, and for many a long season too.

But as always, it’s one game at a time. So, what are our chances?

They have been able to watch us three times. Against Preston and Ipswich at home, and against Southampton away. They will have been alerted in no uncertain terms by the two home performances which, although perhaps not hitting the full heights of our ability, would have been enough to make them sit up and take notice. The trip to Southampton might just have shown them a way to unsettle us and so I half expect them to come to rough us up and stop us playing. What a compliment that would be! But I won’t be happy at all if they clog us, as the game at Watford on the Tuesday after is equally important to our season.

So, here are my assorted scouting comments, written in the full knowledge that it is I, and not the Senor, who can say quite honestly, “I know nothing”.

They have been playing a very standard 4-4-2 and their starting line-up could be:

Schwarzer

Pantsil Hughes Hangerland Konchesky

Davies Etuhu Murphy Dempsey

A. Johnson Zamora

They have scored only three away goals in the Premiership all season!

They have lost Bullard from their midfield which has weakened them considerably. They have taken Giles Barnes from Derby on loan but he is cup-tied and so cannot play against us. The ball goes through Murphy almost all the time and he plays it simple but can have it taken off him. Etuhu is a straightforward player in the OTJ mould but unlike OTJ he looks a potential weak link! I really fancy Leon and Allen and Gomez to get amongst them and dominate.
When they played Sunderland recently the midfield was very open and Murphy and Etuhu looked like they had never been introduced to each other.

Dominating possession in this area of the pitch is our strength and this could be key.

Both Davies and particularly Dempsey come in and play narrow to give support to the central two. This does tend to expose their full backs a bit and our way of playing with Dyer and Gower hugging the touchlines will stretch them and ask questions.

When attacking Davies and Dempsey do wander. Dempsey, particularly when the game enters its chaotic stage in the final quarter, can appear in the hole behind the front two and he looks dangerous. He is good on the ball and looks not unlike Gomez in many ways. Just not so good – obviously! Although this can be dangerous it can though leave them exposed to quick breaks as they do lose their shape and are sometimes slow to regain it.

Johnson and Zamora play a high line with Zamora on the shoulder and Johnson more likely to drop in behind. Zamora is lazy and hardly puts in a challenge but Johnson does get behind the ball a bit more. Their play can be pretty unsubtle with balls hit long from full-backs, from the wide midfielders, and even from the keeper’s hands looking for Zamora’s head. Johnson is always in close attendance looking to profit from the scraps and can be a good finisher if shown a sight of goal. Zamora tends to move left (towards Rangel) to receive cross field long balls from Davies.

This style of play is summed up by a comment by Roy Hodgson after the 1-0 defeat to Sunderland. “We had the ball in and around their goal enough times to get something from this match”.

Both full-backs have pace but both tend to boot it away rather than keeping it and playing it out. Their first instinct is not to get forward and overlap although they do when a break seems on. Pantsil looks the better going forward but the poorer defender. Kanchesky tends to ‘show the outside’ which will be an invitation for Dyer to get at him I think.

The centre backs look as susceptible to our strengths as Campbell and Distin did. Hangerland is a giant and we won’t win anything in the air. When did we last hit it there? So short corners will be order of the day. Both Hughes and particularly Hangerland lack a bit of pace so getting Dyer inside and running behind them (as he did at Pompey for his goal) will terrify them.

The back four do not keep the straightest of lines. Hangerland sometimes drops a bit, probably because of lack of pace, and this opens the channels to a well timed run. They do tend to defend their box quite narrowly which means long crosses beyond the full-backs could be profitable.

They send the big guys up for corners and set pieces. Then launch it in. They do have a tendency to push off the ball to create space for others. Something to ask the Ref to keep an eye out for.

And what does all that mean to us?

Play our normal game. Fulham are our dream Premiership team to play against. Keep the ball. Defend set pieces. Should be enough.

Forecast – Home Win.

Are you looking up, or are you looking down?

13-10-2008

At the time of the first International break we had accumulated 7 points and were sitting in a very comfortable 7th place in the league. I suggested then that the next six games (seven with the Carling) leading up to the next International break might reveal more clearly where we sit in the pecking order of this league.

Our next three games against the ‘bottom three’, of Palace, Derby and Burnley, did not really follow the script, as we started with another away defeat in London. And then, picked up just two points from the two home draws. After what was on paper the easier half of this run of games we then entered the much tougher sequence of Reading, Preston and Wolves. And we started really badly, as we took a 4-0 thumping at the Madjeski, and for some the writing was on the wall. How much of this defeat was due to the after-effects of the preceding fine win against our near neighbours, is open to conjecture. What is without doubt, is that we were totally outplayed by Reading and we were lucky to keep it to four. At that stage, there were the beginnings of disquiet in some quarters, with the gainsayers almost gleefully telling us, “they told us so”. The panickers were beginning to panic, but in truth that was the first time we had seen a team who had matched us this season, except perhaps for Cardiff in the first 20 minutes. But when the going gets tough, the tough do get going, and that was definitely the case for the Swans as our recovery was both swift and spectacular.

The set back at Reading was forgotten as we moved on to a very professional away win at Preston, and a comprehensive victory over the table-topping Wolves. The doubters had for the time being been proved wrong and have once again fallen silent. Have no doubt though that they are lurking, waiting for the next slip so they can preach their doom-laden prophecies.

And so as we end the first semester, and rest up for the second International break, we reach the time where according to conventional wisdom it is valid to look at the league table and take something from it.

8th place; 15 points; out of the play offs only on goal difference – most would say very satisfactory indeed.

But, when we look at that league table should we be looking up towards the play offs and automatic promotion places? Or, should we be looking down at the trap door back to purgatory, which places 22, 23, and 24 stands over?

I thought it would be instructive to have a look at the table at the same stage last season to see if it revealed anything useful.



The only thing possible to conclude from that league table is that is it’s impossible to conclude anything from it!

Clearly, being top at this stage means nothing, but I doubt that Birmingham will blow up quite as spectacularly as Watford did last year. Reading, are 3 points better off and in the same position as WBA were last season. On what we have seen so far they have to be one of the serious contenders to be Champions.

Scunthorpe were on 14 points and were relegated from that position. That’s worth considering very seriously. And promoted Hull were in 15th spot and not looking in contention at these early stages. The other two relegated clubs Colchester, and in particular Leicester, didn’t at this early stage look like early candidates for the drop.

There was significant movement and change after this point in the season and so it’s pretty obvious, isn’t it, that it’s dangerous to read too much into the table at this early stage. There are far too many games, and far too many points to play for before anything at all is decided. It’s what happens from this point that really matters.

Now here is something spooky about last year’s table.

7th and 8th spots occupied by two teams on 15 points – as is the case now.
7th and 8th spots occupied by local rivals, 40 miles apart – as is the case now.

The fortunes of those two teams were very different.

One team ended up in 7th place just missing out on the play offs. The other in 21st place only just escaping relegation.

And the teams this season in 7th and 8th spot, on 15 points, and separated by only 40 miles? Well I don’t need to tell you the answer to that do I?

Are you looking up, or are you looking down?




Early Term Report

02-09-2008

The two-week International break is in some way unwelcome because it calls a temporary halt to the promising start we have made. But, it does give the chance to draw breath, take stock and review the earliest stages of our return to this level after such an agonisingly long time away. What have we seen so far?

· A loss to set piece goals having been the better team at Charlton

· A convincing win by the ‘B team’ in the cup

· A comprehensive dispatch of the big spending, but actually very poor, Forest

· A hard fought and fully deserved away win at Plymouth

· Our ‘B team’ staking a claim by seeing off the Premiership new boys

· And a winning performance undone by failing to convert our chances versus Wednesday

So, what does the first early term report say about us. Well, not many will complain that we sit in a healthy 7th place in the League. We have played attractively and received compliments from those who have seen us. We have strength in depth and options. Overall then, ‘ a good start, but could do better’.

Now, had you offered me that before the season started I would have bitten your hand off. But, having now seen the division a bit more close up, and so far having seen nothing to fear, maybe we should not be too satisfied at all. Had we sorted out the set piece defending and been more ruthless in front of goal then we would have at least 10 points and be sitting right up there!

And, with a much tougher month of fixtures ahead of us, we may rue the points we have not gained in this early period. Arguably, we have a golden opportunity ahead with Palace, followed by Derby and Burnley at home, in quick succession. None of those will hold big fears now, but we all know there are no ‘gimmes’ at all in this league. We may not be able to afford the luxury of slip ups in those three, because after that, and the pleasant distraction of reacquainting ourselves with our ‘friends’ up the road, a real test comes with Reading and Preston away, followed by Wolves at home. Those three look like a stern examination of any team and so, at the time of the next mini break in October, we may have a much clearer picture of what our season may hold for us, and where we actually do fit in the pecking order.

A reasonable question to ask now is, ‘What are the priorities to work on in the next fortnight?’ I mean other than the obvious of a keeper and conceding less and scoring more.

In terms of formation we have seen 4-5-1, 4-5-1, and…….. that’s it. Maybe that isn’t a surprise as we stuck to this shape game after game in Spain, even when we did not have the personnel fit to play it at our best. The Senor was certainly getting us ready to play that way. We only switched to 4-4-2 once I think and that was in the second half against Barca. Didn’t we score three times then? So does this suggest that the time is coming for us to show a little bit more ambition, and play in a more cavalier style?

Does the selection of Butler and Gower reveal our approach so far has been conservative? Experience over youthful exuberance, and solidity over flair? That’s quite understandable whilst we find our feet in this division, but how long will the stars in waiting be patient: Orlandi and MacDonald have done well and will wonder what more they have to do; Pintado when fully fit will want more game minutes; Serran and Bessone will want to have their chance before mid-winter is upon us; Brandy will not be happy to be overlooked for long periods; and Gomez looks a very expensive decoration if all he does is warm the bench until the closing stages.

There is no doubt we have an abundance of riches and fitting that lot into a team which is already attracting plaudits from all sides will be a real challenge. So far we have avoided serious injury (other than Bessone who might benefit from watching a few games anyway), and suspensions have not cut in (other than Monk’s which was used up cheaply). So, as the season advances events may ‘help’ the Senor decide his best team, but for now he has to find a way through these tough choices.

Perhaps we will see a number of teams and formations emerge after this break. 4-5-1, 4-4-2 and even 4-3-3 although we lack a bit of pace out wide to go for that last one. Will the Senor ring the changes depending on the opposition? Pick a team to beat the way the opposition play? Rotate the squad and keep them happy and involved? Or, is the plan to stick with 4-5-1 and the list are merely back up and they need to get used to the idea? What a glorious set of difficult questions for the Senor to face. Who amongst us would feel confident that they have the answers? More importantly who does not have confidence that the Senor is the right man to have at the helm to answer those questions now?

I feel that I am living through a period of real significance for the Swans. One that may go down in history and be retold in years to come. There are many components to this not least the stadium and our directors, but of course the most important factor is Roberto Martinez. The start and the potential we have shown suggests that he can walk on the Tawe, can turn lead into gold, and can even turn wine into water (in the players glasses anyway). Long may his reign continue I say.

I think we might just about be ok this season!























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Richard of Warwick

Richard Tamlin was brought up by the banks of the Tawe in Ystalyfera and started his pilgrimage to The Vetch in the late-1950's on his father's knee.

Earliest memories are of the Double-Decker (both bus and stand!), Brian Clough scoring against us, and being star struck meeting Mel Nurse in the Co-Op Cafeteria.

Soon too big to be passed over the turnstile, he graduated to the North Bank and was an enthusiastic kicker of the tin sheets in the '64 Cup Run. He left South Wales in 1972, lived in numerous places around the UK, settling eventually in Warwick in 1985.

Although not always present he was always faithful and in recent years he and Alison have reengaged completely, now from their bolt-hole on the banks of the Tawe opposite the Liberty. In 2007-2008 he realised an ambition, seeing all 46 league games. In 2008, he met Febian Brandy but was still star struck....... little changes really!

Rich's previous columns